There’s an interesting article by Clive Thompson in Fast Company’s February 2008 edition. It goes by the title “Is The Tipping Point Toast?” and it is indeed an interesting question.
The theory behind “the tipping point” is an obvious one to marketers that is characterized by a minority of influentials sparking a given trend, hit product, or otherwise. We all play such a role in the fishbowl that is the marketing world in a sense. But I tend to side with Duncan Watts’ theory in the article that influentials do indeed play a role in the proliferation of messages, but that it is in reality far more complex and random in the real world.
“…Cascades require word-of-mouth effects, so you need to build a six-degrees effect into an ad campaign; but since you can never know which person is going to spark the fire, you should aim the ad at as broad a market as possible–and not waste money chasing “important” people…”
My favorite line though:
Influentials don’t govern person-to-person communication. We all do.
And finally, this is the tie that binds the aforementioned together:
Watts believes this is because a trend’s success depends not on the person who starts it, but on how susceptible the society is overall to the trend–not how persuasive the early adopter is, but whether everyone else is easily persuaded.
So think of that next time you want to know who started the iPod trend or that of the infamous trucker hat adorned by our beloved celebrity idols in years past. The latter example is obvious in that it will cost you a pretty penny to get Paris Hilton to wear your trucker hat but in the end, many will cling to the endorsement. The iPod scenario is clearly defined by a need as expressed by society. That has been proved by sheer sales numbers. It doesn’t matter if Paris has an iPod. All I want to do is jam 80 million songs on a device the size of my palm.
My point is that there is no one correct theory especially as it relates to mass marketing. We’re in the age of conversation, web 2.0, tipping points, and influentials to boot. Innately, that should not imply that any one party has absolute authority. Rather I’d say mass adoption in its purest form is itself fabricated by a combination of several factors the likes of financial backing, influentials, Connectors, Mavens, and of course the boundaries of the acceptable of society at large.
Let us all not be fooled by the nuanced views of the privileged few. Despite these teachings we certainly have not improved society nor the quality of consumer goods, services, or ideas on the whole. The concept of the tipping point tacitly admits that we are already dominated by the elite–hence the success of Gladwell’s book–as shown by our readiness to embrace the concept of the tipping point at this point in history.
Like the old saying goes: those who would give up their essential liberties to obtain a measure of security - deserve neither. In context, a similar strife occurs when we as individuals become wrapped up in becoming or being “influential”, or “Connectors” as it were. At the end of the day this is futile exercise considering that there will always be another layer of elites around the corner (albeit likely in more concentrated numbers). The illusion of power is merely what a higher authority chooses to offer a lesser one. With power often comes great responsibility which one could argue might limit freedoms relating to creativity and passion which I would then argue stifles our common goal as marketers. While we assist in the sale of widgets around the globe, why can’t we, at very least, market widgets that add value to the conversation and society at large.
Surely if products and ideas sold themselves the role of the marketer would diminish in importance. Conversely, and probably perversely, I prefer to think that we all simply want to know how society ticks. The more we know the audience, the quicker the sale. Thus marketing as a function won’t disappear but I do see a shift in terms of what the job requirements will read in a decade or two in the future.
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